COMPS:
JORDAN HAIMOWITZ
New York Mets -130
Consensus america
thursdays Bonus Play is the twins
BLACK WIDOW
1* on Colorado Rockies -139
GAMBLERS DATA
Oakland -150
Arthur Ralph Sports
Bonus Play Thurs Oakland A's -140
TRACE ADAMS
THURSDAY'S Bonus Play - St. Louis Cardinals
Dave Cokin Comp
(969) TAMPA BAY RAYS
(970) MINNESOTA TWINS
Take "(969) TAMPA BAY RAYS"
JIM FEIST COMP
(959) SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
(960) COLORADO ROCKIES
Take "(959) SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS"
Madison Bumgarner made his debut last week, a top prospect for the pitching-rich Giants. The kid did well, allowing 5 hits, 1 walk and 5 strikeouts in 7 innings. Colorado has never faced him before. The Rockies go with Aaron Cook who has struggled all season, at 2-5 with a 4.69 ERA. He's walking too many batters and he's already lost to the Giants this season, with a 7.50 ERA walking 5 in 6 innings with 7 hits. The home team is far too big a favorite. Play the Giants.
Jack Clayton
Bonus Play
Sport: MLB
Game: Giants at Rockies
Date/Time: 7/1/2010 9:00PM EST
Pick: Giants
Matt Fargo
Free play
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays
Reason: Tampa Bay was able to salvage a split with the Red Sox with a win last night and it looks to carry that into Minnesota for the start of a big four-game series. The Rays have hit a rough patch and it all came to the forefront with the dugout fracas between B.J. Upton and Evan Longoria but like was said then, that can actually bring a team closer together than send it further apart. Tampa Bay owns a 25-13 record on the road which is still the best in baseball. Minnesota won two of the final three games against the Tigers to reclaim the divisional lead after Detroit moved into first place briefly for just a day. Minnesota continues to be strong at home with a 25-14 record but after a 20-9 start, the Twins are just 5-5 at home in their last 10 games. Jeff Neimann was on the wrong end of Edwin Jackson’s no-hitter last Friday so he was hit with just his second loss of the season despite another great outing. He has been the best pitcher for the Rays on a team filled with great pitchers so it shows the season he is having. He has a 2.72 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through 15 starts, 12 of which have been quality outings and he has been spectacular on the road. He is 4-0 with a 3.02 ERA in seven road starts this season with Tampa Bay going a perfect 7-0 in those games. Minnesota goes with Carl Pavano and he is having a solid season as well but no quite the same as his counterpart. He has a 3.33 ERA though 15 starts, 11 of which have been quality performances so he is right there as well. The problem is that he has tossed four straight quality outings and the last time he did that, he imploded in his fifth straight attempt as he allowed six runs on 10 hits in only four innings against Toronto. The Rays also fall into a solid situation. Play on American League teams that are hitting .265 or less and starting a pitcher with an ERA of 3.00 or less over his last 10 starts going up against a team with a bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better. This situation is 60-26 (69.8 percent) since 1997. 3* Tampa Bay Rays
Golden contender
On Thursday the free MLB Play is under the total in the Mariners at Yankees game. Rotation numbers 965/966 at 1:05 eastern. This game fits a totals system that has 11 of 13 times. What we want to do is play the under for home favorites of -200 or higher if they lost as a home favorite at -140 or higher and had 4 or less hits, vs an opponent off a road win and scored 5 or more runs. The Yankees big 7-0 loss which saw them get 2 hits sets up this totals play. They have their horse today on the mound in CC Sabathia. Sabathia has allowed just 1 run in his last 15 innings vs Seattle and he has been lights out in his last 3 starts with a 1.57 era. Seattle counters with Rowland- Smith today. Smith has been decent vs the Yankees in his 2 lifetime starts. The Yankees have gone under in 6 of their 8 Thursday games and Seattle has trouble with left handed pitchers scoring just around 3 runs per game. Look for this one to play Under. On Thursday I have a Double MLB Power system Parlay and a Big MLB Totals system that averages 13 runs per game. Those with me on Wednesday cashed the Big MLB Dog play as Tampa cashed easily. More damage on Thursday. For the Bonus Play today take the under in Seattle at New York game. GC
Robert Ferringo:
MLB - Take N.Y. Yankees (-1.5, -120) over Seattle (1 p.m., Thursday, July 1)
This game is also going to go ‘over’ and I will likely have that as a rated selection. But this all sets up for a big Yankees win. They are one of the best teams in the league against left-handed starters and here they are going to get their licks in on Ryan Rowland-Smith. Rowland-Smith is awful, sporting a 6.80 ERA and a 1-7 mark in his last eight starts. The Yankees are going to tee off on him and after facing Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez in the first two games of this series RR-S’s weak stuff is going to look like prime rib. This play gets even bigger if the Yankees lose to Felix on Wednesday and the Red Sox beat the Rays at home that evening as well. That would put the Yanks and Sox in a tie for first place and that would really get the attention of the home team here. C.C. Sabathia has been dominating and I like it to continue. Yankees big in a “gimme”.
Cajun Sports
Bonus Play
The A’s look to rebound after losing Game 2 on Wednesday night in Baltimore 9 to 6 which tied the series at a game apiece. Oakland will send Trevor Cahill to the bump while the Orioles will hang their hopes on Jake Arrieta. Cahill and the A’s are 9-3 versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season and 16-3 when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. Baltimore is 8-31 versus AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs per game this season, 4-20 when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season and 1-16 versus a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits per start this season. We will back the visitor here as they take Game 3 and the series in Baltimore on Thursday night.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Oakland A’s 5 Baltimore Orioles 2
Info Plays Thursday MLB Bonus Play:
3* on Los Angeles Angels -121
Reasons the Angels win:
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Home teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (LA ANGELS) - average offensive team (4.7 to 5.2 runs/game) against a good starter (ERA<=4.20) (AL), with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start. This is a 44-9 ML System hitting 83% over the last 5 seasons. This system is 7-1 this season alone.
2.) Jared Weaver. The righty is 7-3 with a 3.01 ERA and 1.092 WHIP this season. Weaver is 2-1 with a 1.96 ERA through 7 home starts this year as well. Finally, Weaver is 4-3 with a 3.88 ERA in 15 lifetime starts vs. Texas while C.J. Wilson is 0-1 with a 12.00 ERA in 2 lifetime starts vs. Los Angeles. Bet the Angels at home.
Chris Jordan
Bonus Play
I have to play the Padres in this one, as it appears to be a pitching mismatch between Brian Moehler and Jon Garland.
Garland is 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA in six starts versus the Astros, and has been lights out in scattering seven hits in 14 scoreless innings in the last two. He was stunning in giving up just two hits over seven innings of a 2-1 victory at Houston on May 8.
I am banking him scoring his fourth straight win over the Astros.
He should have the run support he'll need, as Moehler is 1-3 with a 6.37 ERA in six starts since joining the rotation in late May.
Take the Friars in a blowout win tonight at PETCO Park
1? SAN DIEGO RUN LINE (LISTING GARLAND AND MOEHLER)
Bobby Maxwell
Free play
My Bonus Play run is at 115-100-3 with a winner coming tonight on the Cardinals as they host the Brewers in an N.L. Central showdown.
Both the Brewers and Cardinals are coming off losses Wednesday night, but I’m banking on the Cardinals bouncing back in a big way tonight when they send Blake Hawksworth (2-4, 5.11 ERA) to the hill at home against Milwaukee’s Randy Wolf (5-7, 4.92).
Hawksworth is making just his third start of the season, but he looked very good last time out on Saturday when he held the Royals to one earned run on two hits over five innings of a 5-3 victory. He only made 66 pitches I the start, so he should be well-rested when he takes the hill for this one.
Wolf is 3-4 on the road with a 4.59 ERA this season and his last start wasn’t so good. He allowed five runs in five innings of a 5-4 loss at home to the Mariners. Back on June 4 he took on the Cardinals in St. Louis and allowed five runs on six hits in 6.2 innings of an 8-0 loss to these guys. He’s not fared well in St. Louis in his career, giving up 13 runs in his three outings there in just 18.1 innings.
Milwaukee is on slides of 1-4 when Wolf faces division foes, 5-11 when they are road ‘dogs and 4-10 when they face a right-hander on the highway. St. Louis is on positive streaks of 41-13 in series openers, 9-4 as home favorites and 39-19 at home against teams with losing road records.
I like the way that Hawksworth battled in his last start and he’s learning how to be a starter in this league. He’ll put up a strong effort tonight and the Cardinals will light up Wolf and the Brewers. Play St. Louis in this one.
2? ST. LOUIS
Stephen Nover
Bonus Play
The San Francisco Giants have lost five in a row and seven of their last eight. Their lack of offense is really showing as they've scored only nine runs in their past five games.
Now they have to leave the Bay to come to the high altitude of Denver's Coors Field where they have lost in five of their last six visits.
The Rockies have won 67 percent of their last 97 home contests. They are swinging the bats well, scoring 19 runs in three games at pitcher-friendly Petco Park.
The pitching matchup favors the Rockies. The Giants are going with rookie Madison Bumgarner, making his second start of the season and first ever at Coors Field.
Bumgarner is the Giants' top pitching prospect, but he's got a ways to go. He gave up two homers to Boston at home in his first start this year this past Saturday.
Aaron Cook gets the start for Colorado. He's been terrible on the road, but brilliant at Coors this season going 2-0 with a 2.40 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. He's holding opponents to a career-best .278 batting average.
Cook is a sinkerball pitcher. The Giants have hit into more double plays than any National League team. Cook induced 17 ground ball outs in his last start against the Angels. That's a bad combination for the Giants.
5? COLORADO
BRETT ATKINS
Bonus Play
You're free winner on the diamond tonight comes from Minnesota's new Target Field as I go with the Rays on the road against the Twins.
Jeff Niemann (6-2, 2.72 ERA) has been a stud on the road this season for the Rays. He’s 4-0 this season with a 3.02 ERA and the Rays are 7-0 in his last seven roadies and they’ve won eight of his last 10 starts overall.
Niemann held the Marlins to two runs in six innings in his last road outing and the offense definitely showed up to score the 9-8 victory.
He faces the Twins’ Carl Pavano who has allowed three runs or more to the Rays in six of the last seven times he’s seen them.
Minnesota has lost four straight series openers and they struggle against the A.L. East at 23-49 in their last 72 overall. Last season, Niemann shut down the Twins in Minnesota in a 7-1 victory and he’ll do the same tonight.
Let’s play the Rays behind Niemann in this one.
4? TAMPA BAY (on a 1? to 5?)
JAY MCNEIL
Bonus Play
Seattle at New York
Enough is enough with this being dominated by a horrible baseball team.
The Mariners won't get anywhere with the Yankees' C.C. Sabathia toeing the slab against Ryan Rowland-Smith.
First of all, the Yankees have yet to be swept in a three-game set at home. Second, Sabathia is on a 5-0 run with a 2.19 ERA.
Third, Rowland-Smith is 1-7 with a 6.18 ERA on the year for the Mariners.
New York's bats come alive, as this matinee won't be close.
2? NEW YORK RUN LINE (List Sabathia and Smith)
(on a 1? to 5? scale)
JOEL TYSON COMP
Carl Pavano has pitched back-to-back complete games, and has a 4-game winning streak to show for his last 4 starts.
I expect Pavano to hook up against Jeff Niemann in a pitcher's duel, and out pitch the Tampa starter tonight at Target Field.
Tampa Bay did pick up a win at Boston last night, but they come into the Twin Cities having dropped 6 of their last 9 overall, and they are just 7-22 their last 29 played at Minnesota.
Minnesota has won their last pair of games to improve to 25-14 overall in the new ball yard, and I like them again tonight in the series opener.
3? MINNESOTA
(on a 1? to 5? basis)
Marc Lawrence Comp
Milwaukee Brewers at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals
The Brewers and Cardinals open the first of a four-game series in St. Louis this evening in a series that's seen Milwaukee struggle of late, going 7-13 the last 20 games. To make matters worse, Randy Wolf is 0-4 in his career team starts in this park. With Wolf sporting a 5.75 ERA in his last five starts, look for him to dip to 4-9 in his last 13 team starts overall. It ain't broke and we're not about to fix it. Back the Redbirds here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on St. Louis.
MTi Sports
Bonus Play
Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees
Prediction: New York Yankees
The Mariners are 0-12 when Ryan Rowland-Smith starts as a road dog vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date and the Yankees are 13-0 when CC Sabathia starts as a 200+ favorite after throwing more than 100 pitches. As a team, Seattle is 0-14 as a dog of more than 110 when facing a team that lost at least their last two games, losing by an average of 4.3 runs. As a team, the Yankees are 18-0 as a 140+ favorite over a team with a winning record of at least 400 when they are off a shutout loss. Since the start of the 2008 season, all of the Yankees wins in this situation were by multiple runs including three from this season. Consider taking the Yankees on the run-line.
Tom Freese
Bonus Play
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies
Colorado starter Aaron Cook has allowed 4 or less runs in 8 of his last 9 starts. The Rockies are 65-32 their last 97 home games. Colorado is 8-2 their last 10 games as favorites. Cook is 6-2 his last 8 home starts. The Rockies are 24-9 their last 33 home games vs. lefty starters. San Francisco starter Madison Bumgarner lost his first ever start to Boston last Sunday. Now he is pitching in Coors Field. Good luck with that. The Giants are 5-15 their last 20 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of over 60%. The Giants are 2-10 their last 12 games as underdogs
Gill Alexander
Bonus Play
HOU (+215) vs SDP
Moehler is coming off 2 solid outings v the potent Texas lineup, 6IP, 2ER, 1H and 5IP, 2ER, 8H performances. We successfully backed him as a +275 dog in that latter outing. Garland is just off a 6.2IP, 1ER, 4H outing v Fla but before that got touched up for 4ER each in consecutive outings v Tor and Bal. Moehler has a 3.16ERA in 5 starts v SD while Garland has a 3.00ERA in 6 outings v Hou. So,pretty even. Sabermetrics bare that out, as well. Moehler has a 5.03FIP and 5.21xFIP but also has a .325 BABIP, meaning we should expect his fielding independent stats to come down as he has had a bit of a bad luck 2010 thus far. Garland has a 4.06FIP and 4.34xFIP this season, but also possesses a .278 BABIP, meaning he's had his share of good fortune up until this point in 2010. By the way, his 0.92ERA-FIP mark is the 16th widest discrepancy to the negative side in all of baseball, meaning we should be on the lookout for embedded line value whenever he takes the mound. And value is what we've found in this one. For all the perception of Houston being a bad club, they had a .500 June. This line has at least a half dollar of intrinsic value on the Astros. Let's seize the opportunity.
JORDAN HAIMOWITZ
New York Mets -130
Consensus america
thursdays Bonus Play is the twins
BLACK WIDOW
1* on Colorado Rockies -139
GAMBLERS DATA
Oakland -150
Arthur Ralph Sports
Bonus Play Thurs Oakland A's -140
TRACE ADAMS
THURSDAY'S Bonus Play - St. Louis Cardinals
Dave Cokin Comp
(969) TAMPA BAY RAYS
(970) MINNESOTA TWINS
Take "(969) TAMPA BAY RAYS"
JIM FEIST COMP
(959) SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
(960) COLORADO ROCKIES
Take "(959) SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS"
Madison Bumgarner made his debut last week, a top prospect for the pitching-rich Giants. The kid did well, allowing 5 hits, 1 walk and 5 strikeouts in 7 innings. Colorado has never faced him before. The Rockies go with Aaron Cook who has struggled all season, at 2-5 with a 4.69 ERA. He's walking too many batters and he's already lost to the Giants this season, with a 7.50 ERA walking 5 in 6 innings with 7 hits. The home team is far too big a favorite. Play the Giants.
Jack Clayton
Bonus Play
Sport: MLB
Game: Giants at Rockies
Date/Time: 7/1/2010 9:00PM EST
Pick: Giants
Matt Fargo
Free play
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays
Reason: Tampa Bay was able to salvage a split with the Red Sox with a win last night and it looks to carry that into Minnesota for the start of a big four-game series. The Rays have hit a rough patch and it all came to the forefront with the dugout fracas between B.J. Upton and Evan Longoria but like was said then, that can actually bring a team closer together than send it further apart. Tampa Bay owns a 25-13 record on the road which is still the best in baseball. Minnesota won two of the final three games against the Tigers to reclaim the divisional lead after Detroit moved into first place briefly for just a day. Minnesota continues to be strong at home with a 25-14 record but after a 20-9 start, the Twins are just 5-5 at home in their last 10 games. Jeff Neimann was on the wrong end of Edwin Jackson’s no-hitter last Friday so he was hit with just his second loss of the season despite another great outing. He has been the best pitcher for the Rays on a team filled with great pitchers so it shows the season he is having. He has a 2.72 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through 15 starts, 12 of which have been quality outings and he has been spectacular on the road. He is 4-0 with a 3.02 ERA in seven road starts this season with Tampa Bay going a perfect 7-0 in those games. Minnesota goes with Carl Pavano and he is having a solid season as well but no quite the same as his counterpart. He has a 3.33 ERA though 15 starts, 11 of which have been quality performances so he is right there as well. The problem is that he has tossed four straight quality outings and the last time he did that, he imploded in his fifth straight attempt as he allowed six runs on 10 hits in only four innings against Toronto. The Rays also fall into a solid situation. Play on American League teams that are hitting .265 or less and starting a pitcher with an ERA of 3.00 or less over his last 10 starts going up against a team with a bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better. This situation is 60-26 (69.8 percent) since 1997. 3* Tampa Bay Rays
Golden contender
On Thursday the free MLB Play is under the total in the Mariners at Yankees game. Rotation numbers 965/966 at 1:05 eastern. This game fits a totals system that has 11 of 13 times. What we want to do is play the under for home favorites of -200 or higher if they lost as a home favorite at -140 or higher and had 4 or less hits, vs an opponent off a road win and scored 5 or more runs. The Yankees big 7-0 loss which saw them get 2 hits sets up this totals play. They have their horse today on the mound in CC Sabathia. Sabathia has allowed just 1 run in his last 15 innings vs Seattle and he has been lights out in his last 3 starts with a 1.57 era. Seattle counters with Rowland- Smith today. Smith has been decent vs the Yankees in his 2 lifetime starts. The Yankees have gone under in 6 of their 8 Thursday games and Seattle has trouble with left handed pitchers scoring just around 3 runs per game. Look for this one to play Under. On Thursday I have a Double MLB Power system Parlay and a Big MLB Totals system that averages 13 runs per game. Those with me on Wednesday cashed the Big MLB Dog play as Tampa cashed easily. More damage on Thursday. For the Bonus Play today take the under in Seattle at New York game. GC
Robert Ferringo:
MLB - Take N.Y. Yankees (-1.5, -120) over Seattle (1 p.m., Thursday, July 1)
This game is also going to go ‘over’ and I will likely have that as a rated selection. But this all sets up for a big Yankees win. They are one of the best teams in the league against left-handed starters and here they are going to get their licks in on Ryan Rowland-Smith. Rowland-Smith is awful, sporting a 6.80 ERA and a 1-7 mark in his last eight starts. The Yankees are going to tee off on him and after facing Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez in the first two games of this series RR-S’s weak stuff is going to look like prime rib. This play gets even bigger if the Yankees lose to Felix on Wednesday and the Red Sox beat the Rays at home that evening as well. That would put the Yanks and Sox in a tie for first place and that would really get the attention of the home team here. C.C. Sabathia has been dominating and I like it to continue. Yankees big in a “gimme”.
Cajun Sports
Bonus Play
The A’s look to rebound after losing Game 2 on Wednesday night in Baltimore 9 to 6 which tied the series at a game apiece. Oakland will send Trevor Cahill to the bump while the Orioles will hang their hopes on Jake Arrieta. Cahill and the A’s are 9-3 versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season and 16-3 when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. Baltimore is 8-31 versus AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs per game this season, 4-20 when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season and 1-16 versus a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits per start this season. We will back the visitor here as they take Game 3 and the series in Baltimore on Thursday night.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Oakland A’s 5 Baltimore Orioles 2
Info Plays Thursday MLB Bonus Play:
3* on Los Angeles Angels -121
Reasons the Angels win:
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Home teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (LA ANGELS) - average offensive team (4.7 to 5.2 runs/game) against a good starter (ERA<=4.20) (AL), with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start. This is a 44-9 ML System hitting 83% over the last 5 seasons. This system is 7-1 this season alone.
2.) Jared Weaver. The righty is 7-3 with a 3.01 ERA and 1.092 WHIP this season. Weaver is 2-1 with a 1.96 ERA through 7 home starts this year as well. Finally, Weaver is 4-3 with a 3.88 ERA in 15 lifetime starts vs. Texas while C.J. Wilson is 0-1 with a 12.00 ERA in 2 lifetime starts vs. Los Angeles. Bet the Angels at home.
Chris Jordan
Bonus Play
I have to play the Padres in this one, as it appears to be a pitching mismatch between Brian Moehler and Jon Garland.
Garland is 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA in six starts versus the Astros, and has been lights out in scattering seven hits in 14 scoreless innings in the last two. He was stunning in giving up just two hits over seven innings of a 2-1 victory at Houston on May 8.
I am banking him scoring his fourth straight win over the Astros.
He should have the run support he'll need, as Moehler is 1-3 with a 6.37 ERA in six starts since joining the rotation in late May.
Take the Friars in a blowout win tonight at PETCO Park
1? SAN DIEGO RUN LINE (LISTING GARLAND AND MOEHLER)
Bobby Maxwell
Free play
My Bonus Play run is at 115-100-3 with a winner coming tonight on the Cardinals as they host the Brewers in an N.L. Central showdown.
Both the Brewers and Cardinals are coming off losses Wednesday night, but I’m banking on the Cardinals bouncing back in a big way tonight when they send Blake Hawksworth (2-4, 5.11 ERA) to the hill at home against Milwaukee’s Randy Wolf (5-7, 4.92).
Hawksworth is making just his third start of the season, but he looked very good last time out on Saturday when he held the Royals to one earned run on two hits over five innings of a 5-3 victory. He only made 66 pitches I the start, so he should be well-rested when he takes the hill for this one.
Wolf is 3-4 on the road with a 4.59 ERA this season and his last start wasn’t so good. He allowed five runs in five innings of a 5-4 loss at home to the Mariners. Back on June 4 he took on the Cardinals in St. Louis and allowed five runs on six hits in 6.2 innings of an 8-0 loss to these guys. He’s not fared well in St. Louis in his career, giving up 13 runs in his three outings there in just 18.1 innings.
Milwaukee is on slides of 1-4 when Wolf faces division foes, 5-11 when they are road ‘dogs and 4-10 when they face a right-hander on the highway. St. Louis is on positive streaks of 41-13 in series openers, 9-4 as home favorites and 39-19 at home against teams with losing road records.
I like the way that Hawksworth battled in his last start and he’s learning how to be a starter in this league. He’ll put up a strong effort tonight and the Cardinals will light up Wolf and the Brewers. Play St. Louis in this one.
2? ST. LOUIS
Stephen Nover
Bonus Play
The San Francisco Giants have lost five in a row and seven of their last eight. Their lack of offense is really showing as they've scored only nine runs in their past five games.
Now they have to leave the Bay to come to the high altitude of Denver's Coors Field where they have lost in five of their last six visits.
The Rockies have won 67 percent of their last 97 home contests. They are swinging the bats well, scoring 19 runs in three games at pitcher-friendly Petco Park.
The pitching matchup favors the Rockies. The Giants are going with rookie Madison Bumgarner, making his second start of the season and first ever at Coors Field.
Bumgarner is the Giants' top pitching prospect, but he's got a ways to go. He gave up two homers to Boston at home in his first start this year this past Saturday.
Aaron Cook gets the start for Colorado. He's been terrible on the road, but brilliant at Coors this season going 2-0 with a 2.40 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. He's holding opponents to a career-best .278 batting average.
Cook is a sinkerball pitcher. The Giants have hit into more double plays than any National League team. Cook induced 17 ground ball outs in his last start against the Angels. That's a bad combination for the Giants.
5? COLORADO
BRETT ATKINS
Bonus Play
You're free winner on the diamond tonight comes from Minnesota's new Target Field as I go with the Rays on the road against the Twins.
Jeff Niemann (6-2, 2.72 ERA) has been a stud on the road this season for the Rays. He’s 4-0 this season with a 3.02 ERA and the Rays are 7-0 in his last seven roadies and they’ve won eight of his last 10 starts overall.
Niemann held the Marlins to two runs in six innings in his last road outing and the offense definitely showed up to score the 9-8 victory.
He faces the Twins’ Carl Pavano who has allowed three runs or more to the Rays in six of the last seven times he’s seen them.
Minnesota has lost four straight series openers and they struggle against the A.L. East at 23-49 in their last 72 overall. Last season, Niemann shut down the Twins in Minnesota in a 7-1 victory and he’ll do the same tonight.
Let’s play the Rays behind Niemann in this one.
4? TAMPA BAY (on a 1? to 5?)
JAY MCNEIL
Bonus Play
Seattle at New York
Enough is enough with this being dominated by a horrible baseball team.
The Mariners won't get anywhere with the Yankees' C.C. Sabathia toeing the slab against Ryan Rowland-Smith.
First of all, the Yankees have yet to be swept in a three-game set at home. Second, Sabathia is on a 5-0 run with a 2.19 ERA.
Third, Rowland-Smith is 1-7 with a 6.18 ERA on the year for the Mariners.
New York's bats come alive, as this matinee won't be close.
2? NEW YORK RUN LINE (List Sabathia and Smith)
(on a 1? to 5? scale)
JOEL TYSON COMP
Carl Pavano has pitched back-to-back complete games, and has a 4-game winning streak to show for his last 4 starts.
I expect Pavano to hook up against Jeff Niemann in a pitcher's duel, and out pitch the Tampa starter tonight at Target Field.
Tampa Bay did pick up a win at Boston last night, but they come into the Twin Cities having dropped 6 of their last 9 overall, and they are just 7-22 their last 29 played at Minnesota.
Minnesota has won their last pair of games to improve to 25-14 overall in the new ball yard, and I like them again tonight in the series opener.
3? MINNESOTA
(on a 1? to 5? basis)
Marc Lawrence Comp
Milwaukee Brewers at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals
The Brewers and Cardinals open the first of a four-game series in St. Louis this evening in a series that's seen Milwaukee struggle of late, going 7-13 the last 20 games. To make matters worse, Randy Wolf is 0-4 in his career team starts in this park. With Wolf sporting a 5.75 ERA in his last five starts, look for him to dip to 4-9 in his last 13 team starts overall. It ain't broke and we're not about to fix it. Back the Redbirds here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on St. Louis.
MTi Sports
Bonus Play
Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees
Prediction: New York Yankees
The Mariners are 0-12 when Ryan Rowland-Smith starts as a road dog vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date and the Yankees are 13-0 when CC Sabathia starts as a 200+ favorite after throwing more than 100 pitches. As a team, Seattle is 0-14 as a dog of more than 110 when facing a team that lost at least their last two games, losing by an average of 4.3 runs. As a team, the Yankees are 18-0 as a 140+ favorite over a team with a winning record of at least 400 when they are off a shutout loss. Since the start of the 2008 season, all of the Yankees wins in this situation were by multiple runs including three from this season. Consider taking the Yankees on the run-line.
Tom Freese
Bonus Play
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies
Colorado starter Aaron Cook has allowed 4 or less runs in 8 of his last 9 starts. The Rockies are 65-32 their last 97 home games. Colorado is 8-2 their last 10 games as favorites. Cook is 6-2 his last 8 home starts. The Rockies are 24-9 their last 33 home games vs. lefty starters. San Francisco starter Madison Bumgarner lost his first ever start to Boston last Sunday. Now he is pitching in Coors Field. Good luck with that. The Giants are 5-15 their last 20 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of over 60%. The Giants are 2-10 their last 12 games as underdogs
Gill Alexander
Bonus Play
HOU (+215) vs SDP
Moehler is coming off 2 solid outings v the potent Texas lineup, 6IP, 2ER, 1H and 5IP, 2ER, 8H performances. We successfully backed him as a +275 dog in that latter outing. Garland is just off a 6.2IP, 1ER, 4H outing v Fla but before that got touched up for 4ER each in consecutive outings v Tor and Bal. Moehler has a 3.16ERA in 5 starts v SD while Garland has a 3.00ERA in 6 outings v Hou. So,pretty even. Sabermetrics bare that out, as well. Moehler has a 5.03FIP and 5.21xFIP but also has a .325 BABIP, meaning we should expect his fielding independent stats to come down as he has had a bit of a bad luck 2010 thus far. Garland has a 4.06FIP and 4.34xFIP this season, but also possesses a .278 BABIP, meaning he's had his share of good fortune up until this point in 2010. By the way, his 0.92ERA-FIP mark is the 16th widest discrepancy to the negative side in all of baseball, meaning we should be on the lookout for embedded line value whenever he takes the mound. And value is what we've found in this one. For all the perception of Houston being a bad club, they had a .500 June. This line has at least a half dollar of intrinsic value on the Astros. Let's seize the opportunity.
ALL COMPS !!!!!!!!
John Martin
1 Unit Bonus Play on Colorado Rockies -144
R&R Totals
Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres Total 7½ un-120
Mikey Sports
Milwaukee Brewers +120
Pure Lock
New York Mets -130
Steve Merril
Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres (MLB) - Jul 1, 2010 10:05 PM EDT
Play: Total: 7.5/107 Over Pick Title:
Bonus Play
The suddenly hot Padres bats welcome the Houston Astros to town. San Diego scored 22 runs in their 3-game series against the Colorado Rockies with 13 of those runs coming last night. Brian Moehler gets the start for Houston. He's 1-3 with a 6.37 ERA in six starts this season. On the road, Moehler is sporting an 8.34 ERA and a 2.35 WHIP in four starts. He has faced the Padres five times in his career with three of those games going Over the total. In limited at-bats, Adrian Gonzalez (5-12), David Eckstein (3-9), Scott Hairston (2-6), Jerry Hairston Jr. (1-3), and Nick Hundley (1-3) hit Moehler well. The Astros bullpen hasn’t helped their starters as they own a 4.81 ERA on the road. San Diego’s Jon Garland struggled big time in the month of June. Outside of his last start against the Marlins, he had a 6.38 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP. Michael Bourn (5-13), Jason Michaels (4-8), Jeff Keppinger (2-5), Hunter Pence (2-5), and Humberto Quintero (2-2) all hit Garland well. Houston has scored 19 runs in their last three games; they’ve gone Over the total in six of their last eight games. San Diego has gone Over in 21 of their 42 home games where they hit .255 as a team. With both pitchers in bad current form, we’ll recommend a play on the Over between the Astros and Padres tonight.
Rocketman Sports
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (MLB) - Jul 1, 2010 7:05 PM EDT
Play: Point Spread: -1.5/-119 Philadelphia Phillies Pick Title: Rocketman Sports FREE MLB play Thursday
Philadelphia @ Pittsburgh 7:05 PM EST Play On: Philadelphia -1 1/2 -120 (Hamels/McCutchen) Listed Philadelphia is now 41-35 overall this year while Pittsburgh comes in with a 27-51 overall record on the season. Pittsburgh is 7-26 this year when playing against a team with a winning record. Pittsburgh has now lost 7 out of their last 9 games overall. Pittsburgh is scoring only 3.2 runs per game overall, 3.4 runs per game at home and 3.6 runs per game against left handed starters this year. Daniel McCutchen is 0-3 with an 11.00 ERA in all games this year, 0-3 with an 11.65 ERA in all starts this year, 0-1 with a 10.56 ERA at home and 0-2 with an 8.56 ERA his last 3 starts. Phillies are 3-0 when Hamels takes the mound against Pittsburgh since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on the Phillies on the Runline tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
Robbie Gainous
Oakland Athletics-137
The A’s look to rebound after losing Game 2 on Wednesday night in Baltimore 9 to 6 which tied the series at a game apiece. Oakland will send Trevor Cahill to the bump while the Orioles will hang their hopes on Jake Arrieta. Cahill and the A’s are 9-3 versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season and 16-3 when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. Baltimore is 8-31 versus AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs per game this season, 4-20 when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season and 1-16 versus a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits per start this season. We will back the visitor here as they take Game 3 and the series in Baltimore on Thursday night.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Oakland A’s 5 Baltimore Orioles 2
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Los Angeles Angels -121
It's hard not to like the Angels at home tonight with Weaver on the hill. After all, the Angels are 40-18 in his last 58 home starts. In addition, the Angels are 5-0 in his last 5 Thursday starts, 5-1 in his last 6 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 4-0 in his last 4 home starts vs. the Rangers. C.J. Wilson has been strong for Texas this year, but he is carrying a 12.00 ERA in 2 career starts versus LA. He was shelled for 7 runs when he first faced the Angels in 2005. The next time he saw them, 5 seasons later, he was lit up for 7 runs again. Plus, the Rangers are 0-4 in Wilson's last 4 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. There is also a very strong system working in our favor tonight. Plays on home teams with a money line of -100 to -150, an average offensive team scoring 4.7 to 5.2 runs per game, against a good AL starter with an ERA of 4.20 or better, with a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits per start, are 44-9 the last 5 seasons. It is also worth noting that this situation is 7-1 already this season. Take the Angels.
Gerry "BIG CAT" Andino
Houston @ San Diego
Pick: UNDER 7.5
NSA
Oakland @ Baltimore
Pick: UNDER 8.5
1. NSA(The Legend) MLB - Pirates +175
2. Ray "The Playmaker" Bowden MLB - Cubs -143
3. VegasSI.com MLB - Cardinals -128
4. SportsAction365.com MLB - Rangers under 8
5. Gameday Network MLB - Cardinals -128
6. William E. Stockton MLB - Rangers under 8
7. Gerry "Big Cat" Andino MLB - Yankees under 9
8. Lou Panelli MLB - Mets -133
9. Steve "Scoop" Kendall MLB - Blue Jays over 8.5
10. Vincent Pioli MLB - Rockies -140
11. John Morrison MLB - Angels -125
12. Tony Campone MLB - Rays over 8.5
13. Chicago Sports Group MLB - Padres under 7.5
14. Hollywood Sportsline MLB - Rays +100
15. VIP Action MLB - Yankees under 9
16. South Beach Sports MLB - Yankees under 9
17. Michigan Sports MLB - Cubs -143
18. NY Players Club MLB - Cardinals over 9.5
19. Charlies Sports MLB - Rockies under 9.5
20. Fred Callahan MLB - Mets over 8
John Martin
1 Unit Bonus Play on Colorado Rockies -144
R&R Totals
Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres Total 7½ un-120
Mikey Sports
Milwaukee Brewers +120
Pure Lock
New York Mets -130
Steve Merril
Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres (MLB) - Jul 1, 2010 10:05 PM EDT
Play: Total: 7.5/107 Over Pick Title:
Bonus Play
The suddenly hot Padres bats welcome the Houston Astros to town. San Diego scored 22 runs in their 3-game series against the Colorado Rockies with 13 of those runs coming last night. Brian Moehler gets the start for Houston. He's 1-3 with a 6.37 ERA in six starts this season. On the road, Moehler is sporting an 8.34 ERA and a 2.35 WHIP in four starts. He has faced the Padres five times in his career with three of those games going Over the total. In limited at-bats, Adrian Gonzalez (5-12), David Eckstein (3-9), Scott Hairston (2-6), Jerry Hairston Jr. (1-3), and Nick Hundley (1-3) hit Moehler well. The Astros bullpen hasn’t helped their starters as they own a 4.81 ERA on the road. San Diego’s Jon Garland struggled big time in the month of June. Outside of his last start against the Marlins, he had a 6.38 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP. Michael Bourn (5-13), Jason Michaels (4-8), Jeff Keppinger (2-5), Hunter Pence (2-5), and Humberto Quintero (2-2) all hit Garland well. Houston has scored 19 runs in their last three games; they’ve gone Over the total in six of their last eight games. San Diego has gone Over in 21 of their 42 home games where they hit .255 as a team. With both pitchers in bad current form, we’ll recommend a play on the Over between the Astros and Padres tonight.
Rocketman Sports
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (MLB) - Jul 1, 2010 7:05 PM EDT
Play: Point Spread: -1.5/-119 Philadelphia Phillies Pick Title: Rocketman Sports FREE MLB play Thursday
Philadelphia @ Pittsburgh 7:05 PM EST Play On: Philadelphia -1 1/2 -120 (Hamels/McCutchen) Listed Philadelphia is now 41-35 overall this year while Pittsburgh comes in with a 27-51 overall record on the season. Pittsburgh is 7-26 this year when playing against a team with a winning record. Pittsburgh has now lost 7 out of their last 9 games overall. Pittsburgh is scoring only 3.2 runs per game overall, 3.4 runs per game at home and 3.6 runs per game against left handed starters this year. Daniel McCutchen is 0-3 with an 11.00 ERA in all games this year, 0-3 with an 11.65 ERA in all starts this year, 0-1 with a 10.56 ERA at home and 0-2 with an 8.56 ERA his last 3 starts. Phillies are 3-0 when Hamels takes the mound against Pittsburgh since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on the Phillies on the Runline tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
Robbie Gainous
Oakland Athletics-137
The A’s look to rebound after losing Game 2 on Wednesday night in Baltimore 9 to 6 which tied the series at a game apiece. Oakland will send Trevor Cahill to the bump while the Orioles will hang their hopes on Jake Arrieta. Cahill and the A’s are 9-3 versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season and 16-3 when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. Baltimore is 8-31 versus AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs per game this season, 4-20 when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season and 1-16 versus a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits per start this season. We will back the visitor here as they take Game 3 and the series in Baltimore on Thursday night.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Oakland A’s 5 Baltimore Orioles 2
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Los Angeles Angels -121
It's hard not to like the Angels at home tonight with Weaver on the hill. After all, the Angels are 40-18 in his last 58 home starts. In addition, the Angels are 5-0 in his last 5 Thursday starts, 5-1 in his last 6 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 4-0 in his last 4 home starts vs. the Rangers. C.J. Wilson has been strong for Texas this year, but he is carrying a 12.00 ERA in 2 career starts versus LA. He was shelled for 7 runs when he first faced the Angels in 2005. The next time he saw them, 5 seasons later, he was lit up for 7 runs again. Plus, the Rangers are 0-4 in Wilson's last 4 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. There is also a very strong system working in our favor tonight. Plays on home teams with a money line of -100 to -150, an average offensive team scoring 4.7 to 5.2 runs per game, against a good AL starter with an ERA of 4.20 or better, with a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits per start, are 44-9 the last 5 seasons. It is also worth noting that this situation is 7-1 already this season. Take the Angels.
Gerry "BIG CAT" Andino
Houston @ San Diego
Pick: UNDER 7.5
NSA
Oakland @ Baltimore
Pick: UNDER 8.5
1. NSA(The Legend) MLB - Pirates +175
2. Ray "The Playmaker" Bowden MLB - Cubs -143
3. VegasSI.com MLB - Cardinals -128
4. SportsAction365.com MLB - Rangers under 8
5. Gameday Network MLB - Cardinals -128
6. William E. Stockton MLB - Rangers under 8
7. Gerry "Big Cat" Andino MLB - Yankees under 9
8. Lou Panelli MLB - Mets -133
9. Steve "Scoop" Kendall MLB - Blue Jays over 8.5
10. Vincent Pioli MLB - Rockies -140
11. John Morrison MLB - Angels -125
12. Tony Campone MLB - Rays over 8.5
13. Chicago Sports Group MLB - Padres under 7.5
14. Hollywood Sportsline MLB - Rays +100
15. VIP Action MLB - Yankees under 9
16. South Beach Sports MLB - Yankees under 9
17. Michigan Sports MLB - Cubs -143
18. NY Players Club MLB - Cardinals over 9.5
19. Charlies Sports MLB - Rockies under 9.5
20. Fred Callahan MLB - Mets over 8
